Q3 2026, Advance Estimate

Released October 29, 2026


+3.37 percent
Change in real GDP
Q2 2026 to Q3 2026, annualized
+5.61 percent
Change in current-dollar GDP
Q2 2026 to Q3 2026, annualized
$33.010T
Current-dollar GDP
Q3 2026


From Q2 2026 to Q3 2026:

  • Real GDP increased by 3.37 percent annualized.
  • Current-dollar nominal GDP increased by 5.61 percent annualized, or $447.006 billion, to a level of $33.010 trillion, the current size of the U.S. economy.
  • The ratio of debt held by the public to GDP increased by 0.92 percentage points to 98.29 percent, and the ratio of total national debt to GDP increased by 0.51 percentage points to 121.70 percent.




Table 1. Gross domestic product

Q3 2026 Q2 2026 Chg. from Q2 2026 Q3 2025 Chg. from Q3 2025
Size of the U.S. Economy
Nominal GDP $33,010.0B $32,563.0B $447.0B $31,180.5B $1,829.5B
Real GDP $24,611.1B $24,408.0B $203.1B $24,113.0B $498.1B


Table 2. Contributions to real gross domestic product growth

Q3 2026 Q2 2026 Chg. from Q2 2026
Quarterly growth rate, annualized (pp)
Nominal GDP 5.6 8.5 -2.9pp
– GDP deflator 2.2 6.3 -4.1pp
= Real GDP 3.4 2.2 1.2pp
Contribution of subcomponents (pp)
Consumer spending 2.5 2.5 0.0pp
Nonresidential fixed investment 1.8 1.2 0.6pp
Residential investment -0.1 0.1 -0.2pp
Change in private inventories 1.6 -0.5 2.1pp
Net exports -3.3 -1.1 -2.2pp
Government spending 0.9 0.0 0.9pp
Total real GDP growth 3.4 2.2 1.2pp
Subcomponent growth rates (pp)
Consumption 3.8 3.8 0.0pp
Investment 19.4 4.7 14.7pp
Exports -5.7 5.0 -10.7pp
Imports 19.7 12.6 7.1pp
Government expenditures 5.3 -0.1 5.4pp


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
Nov 04 08:30 AM Monthly Trade Update, September 2026 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Nov 06 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, October 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Nov 06 10:00 AM Monthly Debt Update, November 2026 U.S. Treasury
Nov 10 08:30 AM Monthly Inflation Update, October 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Nov 13 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, October 2026 U.S. Treasury
Nov 20 10:00 AM State Employment and Unemployment, October 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Nov 25 08:30 AM Monthly Expenditures Update, October 2026 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Nov 25 08:30 AM Monthly GDP Update, Q3 2026 Second Estimate Bureau of Economic Analysis


Notes


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Treasury; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points

“Real” values are expressed in chained 2017 dollars.

Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.