First Quarter 2025, Third Estimate

Released June 26, 2025


From Q4 2024 to Q1 2025:

  • Real GDP decreased by 0.5 percent annualized.
  • Current-dollar nominal GDP increased by 3.24 percent annualized, or $238.183 billion, to a level of $29.962 trillion, the current size of the U.S. economy.




Revisions from the last estimate


  • Real GDP was revised downward by 0.26 percentage points annualized, or $15.330 billion.
  • Current-dollar nominal GDP was revised downward by 0.20 percentage points annualized, or $14.591 billion.


Table 1. Gross domestic product

Q1 2025 Q4 2024 Chg. from Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Chg. from Q1 2024
Size of the U.S. Economy
Nominal GDP $29.962T $29.724T $238.183B $28.624T $1.338T
Real GDP $23.513T $23.542T -$29.632B $23.054T $459.172B


Table 2. Contributions to real gross domestic product growth

Q1 2025 Q4 2024 Chg. from Q4 2024
Quarterly growth rate, annualized (pp)
Nominal GDP 3.2 4.8 -1.6pp
– GDP deflator 3.7 2.3 1.4pp
= Real GDP -0.5 2.5 -3.0pp
Contribution of subcomponents (pp)
Consumer spending 0.3 2.7 -2.4pp
Nonresidential fixed investment 1.4 -0.4 1.8pp
Residential investment 0.0 0.2 -0.2pp
Change in private inventories 2.6 -0.8 3.4pp
Net exports -4.6 0.3 -4.9pp
Government spending -0.1 0.5 -0.6pp
Total real GDP growth -0.5 2.4 -2.9pp
Subcomponent growth rates (pp)
Consumption 0.5 4.0 -3.5pp
Investment 23.8 -5.6 29.4pp
Exports 0.4 -0.2 0.6pp
Imports 38.0 -1.9 39.9pp
Government expenditures -0.6 3.1 -3.7pp


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
Jun 27 08:30 AM Monthly Expenditures Update, May 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Jul 03 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, June 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jul 03 08:30 AM Monthly Trade Update, May 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Jul 08 10:00 AM Monthly Debt Update, July 2025 U.S. Treasury
Jul 14 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, June 2025 U.S. Treasury
Jul 15 08:30 AM Monthly Inflation Update, June 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jul 18 10:00 AM State Employment Update, June 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics


Notes


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Treasury; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points

“Real” values are expressed in chained 2017 dollars.

Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.