Q3 2025, Updated Estimate

Released January 22, 2026

+4.38 percent
Change in real GDP
Q2 2025 to Q3 2025, annualized

+8.28 percent
Change in current-dollar GDP
Q2 2025 to Q3 2025, annualized

$31.098T
Current-dollar GDP
Q3 2025

From Q2 2025 to Q3 2025:

• Real GDP increased by 4.38 percent annualized.
• Current-dollar nominal GDP increased by 8.28 percent annualized, or $612.298 billion, to a level of $31.098 trillion, the current size of the U.S. economy.
• The ratio of debt held by the public to GDP decreased by -0.12 percentage points to 99.27 percent, and the ratio of total national debt to GDP increased by 0.39 percentage points to 123.85 percent.

• Real GDP growth was revised upward by 0.03 percentage points from the previous estimate.
• Current-dollar GDP growth was revised upward by 0.04 percentage points from the previous estimate.

Table 1. Gross domestic product

	Q3 2025	Q2 2025	Chg. from Q2 2025	Q3 2024	Chg. from Q3 2024
Size of the U.S. Economy
Nominal GDP	$31,098.0B	$30,485.7B	$612.3B	$29,511.7B	$1,586.4B
Real GDP	$24,026.8B	$23,771.0B	$255.9B	$23,478.6B	$548.3B

Table 2. Contributions to real gross domestic product growth

	Q3 2025	Q2 2025	Chg. from Q2 2025
Quarterly growth rate, annualized (pp)
Nominal GDP	8.3	6.0	2.3pp
– GDP deflator	3.9	2.2	1.7pp
= Real GDP	4.4	3.8	0.6pp
Contribution of subcomponents (pp)
Consumer spending	2.3	1.7	0.6pp
Nonresidential fixed investment	0.4	1.0	-0.6pp
Residential investment	-0.3	-0.2	-0.1pp
Change in private inventories	-0.1	-3.4	3.3pp
Net exports	1.6	4.8	-3.2pp
Government spending	0.4	0.0	0.4pp
Total real GDP growth	4.4	3.8	0.6pp
Subcomponent growth rates (pp)
Consumption	3.5	2.5	1.0pp
Investment	0.0	-13.8	13.8pp
Exports	9.6	-1.8	11.4pp
Imports	-4.4	-29.3	24.9pp
Government expenditures	2.2	-0.1	2.3pp

Upcoming releases

Date	Time	Release	Data source
Jan 27	10:00 AM	State Employment Update, December 2025	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jan 29	08:30 AM	Monthly Expenditures Update, December 2025	Bureau of Economic Analysis
Feb 05	08:30 AM	Monthly Trade Update, December 2025	Bureau of Economic Analysis
Feb 06	08:30 AM	Monthly Employment Update, January 2026	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Feb 06	10:00 AM	Monthly Debt Update, January 2026	U.S. Treasury
Feb 11	08:30 AM	Monthly Inflation Update, January 2026	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Feb 12	10:00 AM	Monthly Fiscal Update, January 2026	U.S. Treasury

Notes

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Treasury; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points

“Real” values are expressed in chained 2017 dollars.

Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.